Barbora Krejcikova vs Tatiana Prozorova
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The favorite price (1.14) is overpriced relative to our 60% win estimate for Krejcikova; no value at current odds—wait for a price of ~1.667 or higher to consider a bet.
Highlights
- • Market heavily favors Krejcikova (1.14) but research shows parity between players
- • Fair price based on our estimate is ~1.667; current market offers negative EV
Pros
- + If our probability is conservative and Krejcikova is indeed much stronger, the market could be correct
- + Short price means low variance on paper if the favorite truly dominates
Cons
- - Research shows both players with similar poor records and recent losses, not supporting a ~88% market probability
- - Current odds give a clearly negative expected value versus our estimate
Details
We see the market pricing Barbora Krejcikova at 1.14 (implicit ~87.7% win chance) which requires overwhelming evidence that she is a near-lock. The provided research, however, shows both players with identical recent records (10-21) and similarly poor recent form with consecutive losses on hard courts. There is no H2H, no injury or other information that justifies a >85% true probability for Krejcikova. Based on the similarity in profiles and recent results, we estimate Krejcikova's true win probability at 60% (0.60). At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.667; the current market price of 1.14 offers negative expected value (EV = 0.60*1.14 - 1 = -0.316). Therefore no value exists at the quoted odds and we recommend taking no side unless a much longer price (>= 1.667) becomes available.
Key factors
- • Market implies ~87.7% for Krejcikova but research doesn't support that level of dominance
- • Both players show identical 10-21 records and recent losing form on hard courts
- • No H2H or injury information provided to justify a large discrepancy in pricing