Highlights

• • Kovalik priced at 1.02 implies ~98% chance, which is not supported by his 13-26 record in the research
• • Underdog needs only ~9.09% true probability to be +EV at 11.0, but we lack data to assign him that chance confidently

Pros

• + If Kovalik truly is dominant vs this specific opponent, the market price would reflect that (but research does not confirm)
• + Huge underdog odds (11.0) could be profitable if independent evidence showed Surudo >9.1% win chance

Cons

• - Current favorite price (1.02) offers no positive expected value under a realistic assessment of Kovalik's form
• - No data on Surudo prevents a reliable upside estimate—too much uncertainty to justify backing the underdog

Details

The market price (Kovalik 1.02; implied ~98.0%) is extremely short and would require a true win probability ~98% to be +EV at that price. Our read of the provided research (Kovalik career record 13-26 across 39 matches, recent mixed results) indicates his true win probability here is far lower than the market-implied number. There is no information on Bartosz Surudo in the research, creating additional uncertainty but also preventing us from justifying the bookmaker's near-certain pricing. Using a conservative estimated true probability for Kovalik of 65% (reflecting his inconsistent recent form and lack of corroborating data on opponent strength), the bet on Kovalik at 1.02 yields a negative EV (EV = 0.65*1.02 - 1 = -0.337). Conversely, Surudo at 11.0 requires only ~9.09% true probability to be +EV; we cannot confidently assert he has >9% true chance given the lack of data. Therefore we do not recommend a side — no value exists at the current widely-available prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Kovalik at 1.02 is ~98%, an extreme price to justify
• • Provided Kovalik record (13-26 across 39 matches) indicates inconsistent recent form and a much lower baseline win rate
• • No research on Bartosz Surudo in the provided sources, creating uncertainty about upset probability