Highlights

• • Tenika's historical win rate (~32%) conflicts sharply with the market-implied ~95% chance.
• • Home price 9.5 yields a large positive EV under conservative assumptions.

Pros

• + Very large edge vs market price if Tenika's career win rate is representative.
• + Small required fair price (≈1.476) to break even compared with currently offered 9.5.

Cons

• - No data on Baylen Brown in the provided research — higher model uncertainty.
• - Bookmaker may have additional info (injury, late withdrawal, matchup specifics) not present in supplied sources.

Details

We base our estimate on the only available performance data: Tenika Mcgiffin has a 10-21 career record (31 matches) which implies a historical win rate of ~32%. The market, however, prices Mcgiffin at 1.05 (implied win probability ~95%), creating a large discord between observed performance and the market price. Treating Tenika's career win-rate as the best available prior and assuming a two-player zero-sum contest, we infer Baylen Brown's win probability ≈ 1 - 0.322 = 0.677. At the quoted price for Baylen (9.5 decimal), the expected value is highly positive (EV = 0.677 * 9.5 - 1 ≈ 5.435). Even allowing for uncertainty around the estimate, the market price is so extreme that a lay bet on the home player represents significant value. We note substantial uncertainty because we have no direct data on Baylen Brown, possible context (surface, event strength) is missing, and bookmakers may possess additional intel (injury, withdrawal, matchup specifics) not in the supplied research. Given the available information, the home side shows clear value at the current market odds.

Key factors

• • Tenika Mcgiffin career record is 10-21 (≈32% win rate)
• • Market heavily favors Mcgiffin at 1.05 (≈95% implied), a large mismatch vs performance data
• • No available data on Baylen Brown increases uncertainty despite strong value signal