Beatrice Ricci vs Tatiana Pieri
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Tatiana Pieri at 1.444 based on Ricci's weak form; our 73% win estimate produces ~5.4% ROI at current prices.
Highlights
- • Ricci's recent results suggest low probability of upset
- • Current market price for Pieri (1.444) implies ~69.2%, below our 73% estimate
Pros
- + Positive expected value at available prices (EV ≈ 5.4%)
- + Assessment grounded in documented recent poor form for Ricci
Cons
- - We lack a detailed profile for Tatiana Pieri in the provided research, adding uncertainty
- - Small absolute EV — outcome variance in a single match is still significant
Details
We assess value on Tatiana Pieri (away) based on Beatrice Ricci's clear negative form profile: Ricci is 10-21 for the period covered and has multiple recent losses in early September, indicating weak momentum entering this qualifier match. The market prices Pieri at 1.444 (implied ~69.2%). Given Ricci's poor recent results and qualifier setting where small differences in form matter, we estimate Pieri's true win probability at 73%, which is meaningfully higher than the market-implied probability. At our estimate Pieri offers positive expected value (EV = p * odds - 1) versus the current 1.444 price. We note uncertainty because we do not have a detailed profile for Pieri within the provided research, so our probability includes a margin to reflect that unknown, but still shows clear value versus the market price.
Key factors
- • Beatrice Ricci poor overall record (10-21) in the provided window
- • Ricci's recent match losses in early September indicate low confidence/form
- • Market-implied probability for Pieri (69.2%) is slightly below our estimated true win chance (73%)