Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Laura Pigossi

Highlights

• • Bookmakers imply only ~12.7% for Pigossi—likely too low
• • At our 25% estimate, the away line of 7.88 is materially mispriced

Pros

• + Large decimal odds on the away side (7.88) create significant EV if our probability is accurate
• + Pigossi's long career sample suggests steadiness and ability to capitalize on opponents in poor form

Cons

• - Limited detailed recent-form information and no H2H provided increase uncertainty
• - Both players have recorded recent losses in the supplied snippets, so form volatility is a risk

Details

The market heavily favors the home player at 1.102 (implied ~90.7%) while the away price of 7.88 implies only ~12.7% chance. The provided research does not support a 90% probability for the home side: Beatriz Haddad Maia shows a poor recent record (10-21 across the reported span), whereas Laura Pigossi brings long-term experience and a positive aggregate record (559-507 across a large sample). Both have recent losses in the limited match snippets, and both have played on clay and hard, so there is no clear surface advantage in the research. Given the mismatch between the bookmaker-implied probability and the available performance data, we estimate Pigossi’s true win probability at 25%, which makes the away line (7.88) strongly positive EV. Calculation: EV = 0.25 * 7.88 - 1 = 0.97 (97% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We therefore recommend backing the away player at current prices, as the market appears to overprice the home side.

Key factors

• • Home price (1.102) implies an extreme ~90.7% chance not justified by provided form data
• • Haddad Maia recent record in research is weak (10-21) indicating poor form
• • Pigossi has extensive match experience and a large career sample (559-507), suggesting higher baseline probability than 12.7%