Highlights

• • Home price 1.04 implies ~96% win chance which research does not support
• • At our estimated 12% win chance for the away player, 9.5 yields ~14% ROI

Pros

• + Clear numerical value vs implied market probability
• + Research indicates similar recent form and records between players

Cons

• - Research dataset is sparse and shows limited detail — higher uncertainty
• - Market may be reflecting information not present in the provided research

Details

We find the market price (Home 1.04 / Away 9.5) implies an extreme probability (home ~96%) that is not supported by the available research. The provided profiles show nearly identical recent records and sparse form signals for both players (both listed with 10-21 records and similar recent losses), with no clear injury or head-to-head advantage documented. Given that parity in the research, the away price of 9.5 (implied ~10.5%) appears oversized. We estimate Miriana Tona's true win probability at 12%, which makes 9.5 a value price (EV = 0.12*9.5 - 1 = +0.14). We therefore recommend backing the away player only because current odds exceed our minimum required fair odds for positive expected value. This recommendation is tempered by limited data and potential market information not in the research.

Key factors

• • Market implies an implausibly high probability for the heavy favorite (home 1.04)
• • Research shows nearly identical recent records and little to no form edge between players
• • No documented injuries or H2H info in the research to justify the extreme market skew