Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Dayeon Back

Highlights

• • Market implies Haddad Maia is near-locked at ~88.7% — unlikely given available data
• • Estimated true probability ~60% yields a negative EV at current odds

Pros

• + Public market identifies a short favorite which sometimes hides value for the underdog
• + Both players have recent hard-court experience, so surface is neutral

Cons

• - No evidence in the provided research to justify the extreme market probability for the favorite
• - Data is thin (no H2H or ranking context) making the heavy favorite price look unreliable

Details

We estimate that the two players are closely matched based on the provided profiles (identical 10-21 records, similar recent form and surface exposure). The market heavily favors Beatriz Haddad Maia at decimal 1.128 (implied win probability ~88.7%). For a positive expectation on the favorite at that price we would need a true win probability > 88.7%, which is implausible given the available data (comparable records, recent losses for both, no clear H2H or injury edge). Using a conservative estimated true probability of 60% for Haddad Maia, the bet at 1.128 produces a negative expected value. Therefore we do not recommend taking the market favorite at current prices and set no bet.

Key factors

• • Both players show nearly identical season records (10-21) and recent poor form
• • Market heavily favors Haddad Maia (1.128) implying an ~88.7% win chance which is unsupported by the profiles
• • No clear H2H advantage, injury, or surface dominance in the provided research to justify the market price