Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Renata Zarazua

Highlights

• • Market implies ~61.0% for Haddad Maia; our true estimate is 57.0%
• • Required price for value on Haddad Maia is >= 1.754; current 1.64 is below that

Pros

• + Favorite status is reflected in market price, limiting downside if one prefers not to bet
• + No injury reports in the supplied research reduce unknown risk factors

Cons

• - Recent results in the supplied data show poor form for both players (10-21), increasing match unpredictability
• - Insufficient differentiating information in the research means the market price already reflects the available edge

Details

We compare the market price (Haddad Maia 1.64) to our assessment using only the supplied research. Both players show identical aggregate records (10-21) and similar surface exposure (clay, hard) with recent losses and no injury information in the research, so there is no clear performance edge. The market-implied probability for the home player is about 61.0% (1/1.64); after reviewing form parity and lack of differentiating factors, we estimate the true win probability for Haddad Maia at 57.0%, which does not justify backing the favorite at 1.64. At our estimate the EV on the home price is negative (EV = 0.57*1.64 - 1 = -0.0652), so we decline to recommend a side. To be profitable given our probability, we would need at least 1.754 decimal on Haddad Maia.

Key factors

• • Both players show identical aggregate records and very similar recent results in the supplied data (10-21), so form edge is unclear
• • Surface exposure listed as clay and hard for both players — no pronounced surface advantage in the research
• • No injuries or withdrawals reported in the provided sources; market premium for the home player appears to be standard favorite pricing rather than value