Highlights

• • Pierre priced at 1.69 vs our fair odds ~1.613
• • Estimated ROI ~+4.8% per unit staked at current price

Pros

• + Pierre has the better overall record and comparable surface experience
• + Current market price offers a small but positive expected value

Cons

• - Edge is modest; variance in a single-match tennis bet is high
• - Recent match details are limited and form signals are mixed, increasing uncertainty

Details

We estimate Pierre Delage is the more likely winner based on a stronger win-loss record (20-14 vs Ben Jones 16-26) and both players having experience on hard courts. The market prices Pierre at 1.69 (implied probability 59.17%). We conservatively estimate Pierre's true win probability at 62.0%, which implies fair odds of 1.613. At the available price of 1.69 this represents positive expected value (EV = 0.62 * 1.69 - 1 ≈ +0.048 per unit). The edge is modest but real given Pierre's superior recent record and match-up fit on hard surfaces; Ben's negative overall record and limited recent wins reduce his likelihood of an upset. We see no reported injuries in the provided profiles that would materially reduce Pierre's chance.

Key factors

• • Pierre Delage superior season record (20-14) vs Ben Jones (16-26)
• • Both players have experience on hard courts; Pierre has recent activity on hard/clay and Ben has hard experience but poorer form
• • Market odds (1.69) imply 59.17% vs our 62.0% estimate, creating a small positive edge