Highlights

• • Offered odds (1.13) are marginally higher than our conservative fair price (1.111).
• • Positive but small expected value under conservative assumptions.

Pros

• + Market price shows clear favorite — easier to justify a high probability with few data points.
• + Small but positive expected value at current odds.

Cons

• - No independent research returned; our probability is an assumption and may be wrong.
• - Edge is small (≈1.7% ROI) and sensitive to modest changes in true probability.

Details

Market price strongly favours Matias Olivero at 1.13 (decimal). No external research was returned, so we apply conservative assumptions: the market implies Olivero is a heavy favorite and, absent contradictory information (injury, extreme surface mismatch, or withdrawal), we assign a cautious true-win probability of 90% for Olivero. At p = 0.90 the fair decimal price is 1.111; the offered 1.13 exceeds that threshold, producing a small positive edge. EV calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.90 * 1.13 - 1 = 0.017 (1.7% ROI). Because the edge is small and our information set is limited, we flag elevated model uncertainty but still identify value at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors Matias Olivero (1.13) indicating a large implied probability
• • No external research available — we use conservative assumptions to avoid overconfidence
• • Small positive edge only if Olivero's true win probability is at or above ~90%