Benjamin O'connell vs Tai Leonard Sach
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a very small positive edge on the away favorite (Tai Leonard Sach) at 1.395 using a conservative 72% win probability; the margin is tiny and uncertainty is high.
Highlights
- • Estimated true win probability for the favorite: 72%
- • Current odds (1.395) slightly exceed the required break-even odds (1.389)
Pros
- + Slight positive expected value at current widely-available price
- + Simple market structure with clear favorite — easier to estimate conservatively
Cons
- - Extremely limited information (no form, surface, injury, or H2H data) increases model risk
- - EV is very small (≈0.44% per unit) — vulnerable to estimation error and market movement
Details
Market prices make Tai Leonard Sach the clear favorite at decimal 1.395 (market implied ~71.7%). With no external form, surface, or injury data available we adopt a conservative true probability estimate of 72% for the favorite based on typical ITF seeding and the size of the market gap. Removing a small portion of book vig and accounting for uncertainty still leaves a slight positive edge: EV = 0.72 * 1.395 - 1 = 0.0044 (0.44% ROI). The required fair decimal odds to break even at this probability are 1.389, and the current widely-available price of 1.395 offers marginal value. Given the extremely limited information and small margin, this is a low-margin, high-uncertainty value situation rather than a strong, confident recommendation.
Key factors
- • Favorite priced at 1.395 implies ~71.7% market probability with book vig
- • No external data on form, surface, injuries or H2H — we apply conservative assumptions
- • ITF-level matches often show meaningful favorite bias; small edge exists only if true win prob ≥72%