Benjamin Saltman vs Erik Schiessl
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With no independent data to justify deviating from market pricing, we estimate little to no value at the quoted odds and therefore recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Away (Schiessl) is market favorite at 1.30 (implied 76.9%)
- • Conservative true probability estimate (75%) yields a negative EV at current odds
Pros
- + Conservative stance avoids taking small, unsupported edges
- + Clear thresholds provided for when the market would become attractive
Cons
- - If hidden information exists (injury, surface advantage) we may be overlooking value
- - No bet recommendation may miss a small genuine edge if our conservative estimate is too low
Details
We have no external match data (form, H2H, surface or injuries) and must therefore make conservative assumptions. The market prices the away player (Erik Schiessl) at 1.30 (implied win probability 76.9%) and the home player (Benjamin Saltman) at 3.25 (implied 30.8%). Given the lack of evidence to materially adjust market judgement, we conservatively estimate Schiessl's true win probability at 75.0%. At that estimate the fair decimal price would be 1.333; the offered 1.30 is slightly short of fair value, producing a small negative edge (EV = 0.75*1.30 - 1 = -0.025). We therefore do not find positive expected value on either side at the quoted prices and recommend not betting. If additional reliable information emerges (injury, surface advantage, recent form or H2H strongly favoring Saltman) that increases Saltman's true win probability above ~30.8% or increases Schiessl's probability above ~76.9%, the value calculation should be revisited.
Key factors
- • No external data on form, surface or injuries — must be conservative
- • Market strongly favors away player (1.30) implying ~76.9% win chance
- • Our conservative estimate (75%) implies the market price offers no positive EV