Benjamin Saltman vs Maximillian Mroz
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: With limited information and a market that prices the favorite heavily, available odds do not present positive expected value; we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Normalized market probabilities: ~80% home / ~20% away
- • Required decimal odds for away to be +EV: 5.000; current is 4.7 (EV ≈ -0.06)
Pros
- + Market is clear and liquid — prices are likely efficient absent new information
- + Conservative probability estimate minimizes risk of overestimating an edge
Cons
- - No independent data on surface, recent form, injuries, or H2H to justify diverging from market probabilities
- - Longshot variance could be large; small model errors flip EV sign
Details
We compared the market prices to conservative, normalized implied probabilities and find no value. The raw market-implied probabilities are 1/1.17 = 85.47% (home) and 1/4.7 = 21.28% (away); normalizing for the bookmaker margin gives ~80.06% home / ~19.94% away. With no additional information on surface, form, injuries, or H2H, we adopt a conservative estimated true probability of 20.0% for the underdog (Away). At that estimate the break-even decimal price is 5.000; the current away price of 4.7 yields EV = 0.20*4.7 - 1 = -0.06 (negative). The heavy favorite likewise offers no value once the vig is removed. Given the negative EV at available quotes and the lack of specific edge data, we do not recommend a bet.
Key factors
- • No external information on surface, form, injuries, or H2H — we assume conservative baseline
- • Bookmaker prices imply ~80% / ~20% after normalizing for vig; no clear reason to materially adjust those probabilities
- • Underdog would need >=5.00 (decimal) to be +EV; current 4.7 is short of required odds