Benjamin Hassan vs Darian King

Highlights

• • Market implies ~88.5% for Hassan — we estimate ~78% or less for him, giving King ~22%
• • Break-even odds for our estimate are 4.545; current 5.25 > break-even, producing positive EV

Pros

• + Underdog price (5.25) well above our required break-even (4.545)
• + No injury or surface advantage found to justify heavy market favorite

Cons

• - Limited, noisy sample sizes for both players; King’s record is small (10 matches)
• - Favorites do win often in straight lines — this remains a medium-risk upset prediction

Details

We find clear value on the underdog. The market price (Benjamin Hassan 1.13 / Darian King 5.25) implies Hassan has ~88.5% win probability, which is unrealistic given the raw data: Hassan's career record in the data is roughly breakeven (37-39) and recent results show losses; King has a small sample (5-5) but is a capable Challenger-level opponent on hard courts. There is no injury information or surface advantage in the research that would justify an 88% implied probability for Hassan. Conservatively estimating King’s true chance at 22% (0.22) yields an expected value of 0.155 units on a 1-unit stake at the quoted 5.25 price (EV = 0.22*5.25 - 1). The break-even price for that probability is 4.545; the current 5.25 quote exceeds that threshold, so a bet on King is positive EV under our estimate. We treat this as a medium-risk value play: the market is likely overconfident in the favorite, and the underdog price compensates for upset likelihood.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for Hassan (~88.5%) is implausibly high given the available performance data
• • Hassan's career record in the research is not dominant (37-39) and recent form includes losses
• • Small-sample data for King (5-5) still supports a non-trivial upset probability on hard courts