Benjamin O'Connell vs Tai Sach
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the home player (Benjamin O'Connell) at 2.85 based on Tai Sach's extremely limited, losing record and the market overstating Tai's probability; estimated EV ~+14%.
Highlights
- • Market implies Tai ~72% but evidence is thin (one recorded loss)
- • Home fair odds ~2.50 vs offered 2.85 — positive edge
Pros
- + Clear pricing mismatch between market and available performance data
- + Significant positive EV at current home price (≈14% ROI)
Cons
- - Very small sample sizes and limited data on both players increase uncertainty
- - If there is unreported contextual info (injury, recent form, etc.) the market price could be justified
Details
The market prices Tai Sach as a heavy favorite at 1.38 (implied ~72%), but the only available performance data shows Tai with a single recorded match (0-1 on hard) and no demonstrable track record to justify such a large edge. The market-implied probability for the home (Benjamin O'Connell) at 2.85 is ~35.1%, whereas our assessment, given the lack of supporting form for Tai and the uncertainty around both players, assigns the home player a win probability of 40.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 2.50, so the offered 2.85 contains value. Using the provided current home price of 2.85 yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.40*2.85 - 1 = +0.14), indicating a 14% ROI on a 1-unit stake under our estimate.
Key factors
- • Tai Sach has only one recorded professional match (0-1) on hard — very limited sample
- • Market heavily favors Tai (1.38) implying ~72% probability despite sparse evidence
- • Available price for Benjamin (2.85) implies ~35% — we assess a higher true chance (~40%) creating value