Highlights

• • Rusher has 0-2 recorded career matches and limited evidence of winning form
• • Current home odds (1.72) are longer than our fair odds (1.613) for the estimated probability

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current market price under conservative probability assumptions
• + Opponent's documented inexperience increases likelihood of a favorite win

Cons

• - Very limited data on both players (especially absence of Benjamin-specific data in provided research)
• - Small-sample uncertainty on Rusher means our probability estimate has higher variance

Details

We assess value on Benjamin Saltman (home) based on the provided market prices and the limited profile for Azariah Rusher. Rusher's recorded career (0-2) and very limited match experience through April 2025 indicate a pronounced inexperience/inconsistency risk; there are no noted wins or positive indicators in the research. The market currently prices Benjamin at 1.72 (implied ~58.1% before margin). We estimate Benjamin's true win probability at 62.0% given the contrast in known experience and absence of form for Rusher, which makes the fair decimal price ~1.613. At the offered 1.72 this produces positive expected value (EV = 0.062–0.07 per unit staked). We prefer a conservative probability (62%) because the sample on Rusher is tiny and we lack direct data on Benjamin, but even with conservatism the current home price offers value. If additional information on Benjamin or match surface favored Rusher emerges, this view should be revised.

Key factors

• • Azariah Rusher career record 0-2 with only two recorded matches (very small sample)
• • Market prices Benjamin at 1.72, which is longer than our fair price (1.613) for a 62% win chance
• • Lack of positive performance data for Rusher increases probability tilt toward the more established/market-favored player