Benjamin Saltman vs Ilija Palavestra

Highlights

• • Away favorite priced at 1.55 implies 64.5% win chance — likely overstated per available data
• • Home at 2.33 offers a small positive EV if true win chance is ~45%

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (EV ≈ 4.85%)
• + Market may be overestimating the favorite due to limited sample size

Cons

• - Very limited research data overall, no H2H or detailed info on Benjamin Saltman
• - Edge is small and match outcome uncertainty is high

Details

We judge the bookmaker price for Ilija Palavestra (away) at 1.55 implies a win probability of about 64.5%, which appears high given the limited and mixed match data available (2-3 career record across 5 matches and recent inconsistent results). Benjamin Saltman has no detailed public match data in the supplied research, but the absence of negative indicators combined with Palavestra's small sample and losing record leads us to estimate a materially higher chance for the home player than the market-implied 42.9% (home implied from 2.33). Using a conservative true probability of 45% for Benjamin, the current home price of 2.33 produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.45 * 2.33 - 1 = 0.0485). The edge is small but present; however uncertainty is high due to limited data and no direct H2H or injury information, so this is a speculative value play rather than a low-risk wager.

Key factors

• • Ilija Palavestra has a small sample (5 matches) with a 2-3 record and mixed recent results
• • Market heavily favors Palavestra (1.55) despite limited evidence of dominance
• • No negative indicators for the home player in the supplied research, creating potential undervaluation