Highlights

• • Current odds imply only ~2.7% chance; we estimate ~5.0% — value exists
• • Min fair odds for value at our estimate are 20.00; market is at 37.07

Pros

• + Large margin between market odds and our conservative true-probability implies high ROI
• + If the match proceeds normally, the bet capitalizes on an apparent market error

Cons

• - No external information available — risk of late withdrawal, injury, or data feed error
• - Small absolute win probability means even correct pricing yields infrequent wins

Details

We observe an extreme market price: Benoit Paire listed at 37.07 (implied win probability ~2.7%). With no external research available and acknowledging substantial information risk (possible late withdrawal, data feed error, or inside info), we take a conservative approach and assign Paire a 5.0% true win probability based on his recognizable profile versus an obscure opponent. At our 5.0% estimate, the fair required decimal price is 20.00; the available 37.07 is far above that, producing meaningful positive expected value. We flag a high risk of market mispricing or match-status issues, so this is a speculative value play only if the market price is valid and the match is scheduled to proceed normally.

Key factors

• • Extreme market price on the home player suggests a mispricing opportunity
• • No research or news available — high uncertainty about withdrawals/injuries
• • We use a conservative 5% true-win estimate to avoid overstatement of value