Highlights

• • Tomic estimated win probability ~60%; market implies ~62.1%
• • EV on favorite (Tomic at 1.61) is approximately -0.034 (negative)

Pros

• + Tomic has better overall record and recent hard-court indicators
• + Both players are accustomed to the surface so no large surface-driven upset signal

Cons

• - Market price for Tomic is slightly richer than our estimated probability
• - Limited head-to-head and detailed match-by-match form data in the provided research

Details

We compare market prices to our subjective win probability based strictly on the provided profiles. Bernard Tomic has a better overall win-loss record (45-35 across 81 matches) and recent hard-court results that suggest slightly stronger form and serving performance versus Yasutaka Uchiyama (26-31 across 58 matches). The market prices Tomic at 1.61 (implied 62.1%), which is slightly richer than our estimated win probability of 60.0%. At that estimate the bet on Tomic yields a small negative edge (EV = 0.60*1.61 - 1 = -0.034), so it is not value. Uchiyama’s market price (2.25, implied 44.4%) would require a true win probability ≥44.44% to be fair; given his inferior overall record and no clear advantage on hard courts in the provided data we estimate his true win chance near 40.0%, which also produces negative EV at 2.25. Therefore no side offers positive expected value at current widely-available prices.

Key factors

• • Tomic has a superior overall win-loss record and recent hard-court performance
• • Both players have experience on hard courts; no injury information provided
• • Market-implied probability slightly overprices Tomic relative to our estimate