Highlights

• • Jaiani's recent results and season record point to low upside for the away player
• • Current home price (1.30) is slightly above the conservative fair price threshold (1.266)

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available odds (EV ~2.7%)
• + Betting on the favorite aligns with documented deterioration in the opponent's form

Cons

• - We have no provided performance or injury data for Betina Tokac, increasing model risk
• - Edge is small (low margin) and sensitive to small changes in true probability

Details

We estimate Betina Tokac is the clear favorite against Natali Jaiani given Jaiani's weak 10-21 season record and recent string of losses and poor form. The market price of 1.30 (implied ~76.9%) appears slightly generous relative to our conservative true-win estimate for the home player. Because available research documents Jaiani's persistent struggles on hard and clay and no mitigating positives in her recent form, we place Betina's true-win probability above the market-implied level, generating a small positive edge at current odds. We remain cautious because we lack direct data on Betina Tokac in the provided research, so we intentionally use a conservative probability to avoid overstating value.

Key factors

• • Natali Jaiani 2024-2025 record 10-21 with multiple recent losses indicating poor form
• • Market price 1.30 implies ~76.9% win chance; we conservatively estimate Betina higher at 79%
• • Lack of provided data on Betina increases uncertainty, so probability estimate is conservative