Highlights

• • Favorite implied probability (≈97.94%) is slightly higher than our conservative estimate (97.5%).
• • Required fair odds (1.026) exceed current available odds (1.021), producing negative EV.

Pros

• + If our conservative estimate is too low and true win probability ≥97.94%, the favorite would be small positive EV.
• + Book market likely reflects strong imbalance — low variance outcome if favorite truly overwhelming.

Cons

• - Current favorite price (1.021) is shorter than our fair estimate, giving a small negative expected return.
• - Lack of external information (injury/withdrawal/conditions) increases risk of market mispricing in either direction.

Details

Market prices are extremely lopsided (Away 1.021, Home 34.06). With no external data returned we take conservative assumptions: the away player (Lina Gjorcheska) is the clear market favorite and deserves a very high win probability, but the book's implied probability (≈97.94%) is slightly higher than a conservative true-estimate. We estimate the away player's true win probability at 97.5% (0.975) to account for some residual upset risk and unknowns (withdrawal/injury status unknown). At that probability the fair decimal price is 1.026, which is higher than the available 1.021 — producing a small negative EV on the favorite. The huge underdog price for the home player implies an implied probability ≈2.94%, but given no supportive evidence to materially upgrade that chance we do not treat the underdog price as a reliable value bet. Because neither side offers positive expected value versus our conservative probability estimate, we recommend taking no bet.

Key factors

• • Extremely short favorite price (1.021) implies ~97.94% market probability
• • No external data returned; we apply conservative estimate to avoid overrating upset chances
• • Possible market distortions (withdrawal/late news) could explain extreme odds, increasing uncertainty