Highlights

• • Home implied probability at 2.80 = 35.7%; our estimate = 33%
• • Required odds for home to be +EV = ~3.03; current 2.80 is below that threshold

Pros

• + Clear threshold: if home price moves to ≥3.03 the home side becomes +EV
• + Conservative, uncertainty-aware approach reduces risk of overconfident calls without data

Cons

• - High uncertainty due to lack of surface/form/injury/H2H data
• - Favourite is expensive; backing away would need an estimated win probability materially above our conservative 67% to be +EV

Details

We compare the market prices (Home 2.80, Away 1.40) to a conservative estimated true probability. The market-implied probabilities are ~35.7% for the home win (1/2.80) and ~71.4% for the away win (1/1.40). With no external data returned, we adopt a conservative estimate that Bianca Elena Barbulescu (home) has ~33% chance to win and Lina Gjorcheska (away) ~67% — reflecting the market tilt but allowing for limited uncertainty. At our home-win estimate (p=0.33) the break-even decimal odds would be 3.03; the current home price of 2.80 yields EV = 0.33*2.80 - 1 = -0.076 (negative). The favoured away player would require a win probability >71.43% to offer positive EV at 1.40, which is above our conservative estimate (~67%). Given these inputs, neither side offers positive expected value at the quoted prices, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No external/recent form or injury data available — we use conservative, uncertainty-weighted estimates
• • Market strongly favours the away player (implied ~71%), making the favourite expensive to back
• • Home would need ≥3.03 decimal to be +EV against our 33% probability estimate