Highlights

• • Book implies Bilibili win probability ~82.2%; our conservative estimate is 60%
• • Required decimal odds for value on Bilibili are ~1.667; current market is 1.216

Pros

• + We avoid overbetting on a short favorite where market margin appears large versus our conservative view
• + Conservative approach limits exposure when reliable data is missing

Cons

• - If our conservative probability underestimates Bilibili materially, a missed value opportunity could occur
• - No actionable alternative is recommended due to lack of reliable info on JD Gaming

Details

We have no external research for form, roster or matchup context and therefore make conservative assumptions. The book's current decimal price for Bilibili (1.216) implies a win probability of ~82.2%, while our conservative estimated true probability for Bilibili is 60%. Using p=0.60, the break-even decimal odds are 1.667. At the current price (1.216) the expected return would be negative (EV = 0.60 * 1.216 - 1 = -0.2704), so there is no value on the favorite. The away price (4.18) implies ~23.9% and would require a much higher true probability (~23.9% or more) to be attractive; given the lack of information we do not believe we can justify a higher confidence in JD Gaming than the market does. Therefore we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • No independent preseason/roster/form data available — we use conservative assumptions
• • Book implied probability for Bilibili (1/1.216 ≈ 82.2%) is substantially higher than our conservative estimate (60%)
• • Break-even odds for our estimate are ~1.667; current market odds (1.216) are too short to offer value