Bilibili vs MIBR
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on MIBR at 2.43: our conservative estimated win probability (46%) implies fair odds ~2.174, so the current price offers ~11.8% positive EV.
Highlights
- • Estimated true probability 46% vs market-implied ~41.2%
- • Positive expected value of ~11.8% on the away moneyline at 2.43
Pros
- + Market price provides a clear buffer above our minimum fair odds
- + Conservative probability estimate still produces positive EV
Cons
- - No match-specific data available (form, rosters, maps) — increased model uncertainty
- - If home advantage or recent roster/form developments favor Bilibili materially, value disappears
Details
We have no external form, injury, or H2H data, so we apply conservative, tournament-level assumptions: top-level Valorant matches between teams like Bilibili and MIBR tend to be closer than market favorite prices imply, and home advantage at LAN/championship settings is limited. The market-implied probability for MIBR at 2.43 is ~41.2%. We estimate MIBR's true win probability at 46% based on parity assumptions and volatility at this event, which yields positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.46 * 2.43 - 1 = +0.118 (11.8% ROI). The minimum fair decimal odds given our estimated probability is 2.174; the current market price of 2.43 exceeds that threshold, indicating value on the away moneyline.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (2.43) understates MIBR's chance under parity assumptions
- • Lack of decisive home advantage at high-level Valorant events reduces favorite edge
- • Tournament variance and map-pool influence increase upset potential