Highlights

• • Market implies Harris ~70% chance; our model ~57%
• • Current home price 1.43 yields negative EV (~ -0.185)

Pros

• + Harris has marginally better recent form and a slightly stronger win-rate
• + Both players are comfortable on hard courts, reducing surprise variance

Cons

• - Market price leaves no margin of value — needs a much larger gap to be +EV
• - Limited actionable edge: no H2H or injury data to materially shift probability

Details

We estimate Billy Harris is the slight favorite based on marginally better recent results and comparable hard-court experience, but the market price (1.43, implied 69.93%) overstates his win probability. Using a conservative true probability for Harris of 57% (0.57) — reflecting a modest edge vs. Denis Yevseyev but accounting for mixed recent form and no clear H2H advantage — the fair requirement for +EV would be Decimal >= 1.754. At the current price 1.43 our expected return would be negative: EV = 0.57 * 1.43 - 1 = -0.185, so there is no value. We therefore recommend no bet unless Harris can be taken at ~1.75 or higher (or an alternative market / prop offers edge).

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (69.93%) materially exceeds our estimated true probability (57%)
• • Both players have recent hard-court experience; Harris shows slightly better recent results but not dominant
• • No clear injury or head-to-head information provided to justify a large market gap