Highlights

• • Harris has a marginally better recent form on hard courts
• • Current odds (1.43) are slightly above our required fair price (1.389)

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price
• + Form and surface history slightly favor the home player

Cons

• - Edge is small (EV ≈ 2.96%), so variance can erase short-term gains
• - Limited granular match/injury/H2H data increases uncertainty

Details

We compare the market price (Billy Harris 1.43) versus our assessment of his win probability. Both players have similar tour experience and have played predominantly hard courts, but Harris shows marginally better career win rate (34-41 vs 27-41) and more recent positive results on hard courts while Yevseyev’s recent match log shows consecutive losses. The market implies a win probability of ~0.699 for Harris (1/1.43). We estimate Harris’s true probability at 0.72 based on slightly stronger form and better recent hard-court results, which makes the current price slightly favorable. At our estimate, the minimum fair decimal price is 1.389 (1 / 0.72), so the available 1.43 offers positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Both players have heavy recent hard-court activity but Harris has a better recent hard-court result profile
• • Market-implied probability (≈69.9%) is slightly below our estimated probability (72%)
• • No reported injuries or disqualifying issues in available research; H2H data not provided so head-to-head is neutral