Billy Harris vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Juan Manuel Cerundolo at 1.943 because his estimated true win probability (~58%) exceeds the market-implied ~51.5%, producing a positive EV (~0.127).
Highlights
- • Market-implied away probability ~51.5%; our estimate 58% → ~6.5% edge
- • Positive ROI per unit stake at current price (EV ≈ 12.7%)
Pros
- + Clear edge against market pricing based on career record and recent higher-level matches
- + Both players on grass reduces a surface-based surprise; advantage goes to the more consistent player
Cons
- - Profiles provided lack head-to-head and detailed recent match context for this specific tournament
- - Challenger SFs can produce variance; single-match outcomes have inherent volatility
Details
We see a pricing discrepancy: the market makes Billy Harris the slight favorite (1.893) while Juan Manuel Cerundolo is slightly longer (1.943). From the provided profiles, Cerundolo has a stronger overall record (56-30 vs Harris 39-41) and demonstrated recent ATP-level activity (including US Open matches), while both players have experience on grass. We estimate Cerundolo's true win probability at 58% based on superior career win-rate, more consistent form at higher levels, and surface capability. The market-implied probability at the current away price (1.943) is ~51.5%, so we find a ~6.5 percentage-point edge. Using the current decimal price (1.943) yields positive expected value (EV = 0.127 per 1 unit stake), so we recommend backing Cerundolo at the quoted price.
Key factors
- • Cerundolo has a superior overall win-loss record (56-30) vs Harris (39-41)
- • Both players have grass experience, but Cerundolo's higher-level recent matches suggest better form
- • Market prices Harris slightly shorter despite Cerundolo's stronger profile, creating a value gap