Billy Harris vs Arthur Gea

Highlights

• • Modelled Arthur win prob 52.6% vs market implied 50.3% at 1.99
• • Small positive EV (~+4.7%) for the away price given our adjustments

Pros

• + Arthur's stronger career record provides a solid baseline advantage
• + Current odds 1.99 are above our min-required odds (1.901) for a profitable expectation

Cons

• - Surface (grass) likely favors Billy and introduces meaningful model uncertainty
• - No H2H data and recent matches for both are on hard courts, increasing variance

Details

We start from the players' career win rates (Billy Harris ~45.3%, Arthur Gea ~64.2%) and convert them into head-to-head win shares to get a baseline probability (Billy ~41.4%, Arthur ~58.6%). Because the match is on outdoor grass and Arthur's listed experience is largely clay/hard while Billy has grass exposure, we apply a surface adjustment that shifts ~6 percentage points toward Billy, giving estimated true probabilities of Billy ~47.4% and Arthur ~52.6%. The market currently prices Billy at 1.82 (implied ~54.9%) and Arthur at 1.99 (implied ~50.3%). Our model disagrees with the market favoring Billy; using our estimate (Arthur p=0.526) the away price 1.99 yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.526*1.99 - 1 = +0.0467, ≈ +4.7% ROI). The positive EV is modest and rests on two main points: Arthur's stronger overall record and the market apparently over-adjusting to Billy because of surface listing or other factors. Given the small edge and uncertainty around surface conversion and lack of direct H2H data, we rate this a medium-risk value play.

Key factors

• • Arthur Gea has a substantially stronger career win rate overall
• • Match is on grass, which favors Billy Harris slightly due to listed grass experience
• • Market currently favors Billy (1.82) despite Arthur's superior baseline performance