Billy Harris vs Gauthier Onclin
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing Gauthier Onclin at 2.25 because his estimated win probability (~56%) exceeds the market-implied 44.4%, producing ~+26% EV.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Onclin (44.4%) appears too low given career records and recent level of play
- • At 2.25 the away price offers a clear value edge versus our 56% estimate
Pros
- + Strong career win rate and experience at higher-level events supports a higher true win probability
- + Price (2.25) offers significant upside relative to our probability model
Cons
- - Limited head-to-head and incomplete surface-specific split increases uncertainty
- - Data formatting and recent-match clarity in the research are imperfect, reducing confidence intervals
Details
We find value on Gauthier Onclin at the current away price (2.25). The market implies a 44.4% chance for Onclin (1/2.25) while our assessment, driven by Onclin's substantially stronger win-loss profile (46-25 vs Harris's 39-41), recent activity at higher-level events, and both players competing on hard courts, places Onclin's true win probability materially higher. The book is favoring Billy Harris at 1.62 (implied ~61.7%), which appears inflated relative to form and career-level indicators. Using a conservative true probability of 56% for Onclin, the bet yields positive expected value (EV = 0.56 * 2.25 - 1 = +0.26, or +26% ROI). We acknowledge uncertainty due to limited head-to-head data and imperfect surface breakdowns, but the margin between our probability estimate and the market-implied probability is sufficient to recommend the away side at current prices.
Key factors
- • Onclin's superior overall win-loss record (46-25) versus Harris (39-41)
- • Both players are competing on hard courts where both have experience, removing an obvious surface edge
- • Market pricing strongly favors Harris (1.62) despite Onclin's stronger recent level of competition