Highlights

• • Market implies ~70.6% for Monday; we estimate 72%
• • Min acceptable odds for our estimate are 1.389; current quote 1.417 offers value

Pros

• + Clearer grass track record and larger match sample for Monday
• + Current odds exceed our breakeven threshold, yielding positive EV

Cons

• - Edge is small and sensitive to small changes in probability
• - Recent losses by Monday at higher-level events introduce variance risk

Details

The market prices Johannus Monday at 1.417 (implied ~70.6%). After comparing form, surface history and career volume, we estimate Monday's chance at ~72.0%. Monday has a markedly larger match sample, proven grass experience and a stronger win-loss record versus Blaise Bicknell, who has limited exposure on grass and fewer high-level matches. The implied price slightly underestimates Monday's probability, producing a small positive edge. This is a value play only because the market price (1.417) is above our min required odds (1.389) for our probability estimate. We remain cautious because the edge is small and recent results show some losses for Monday at higher-level events, so volatility and matchup specifics could remove the edge.

Key factors

• • Johannus Monday has more matches, stronger overall record and grass experience
• • Blaise Bicknell has limited grass exposure and fewer high-level results
• • Bookmaker price implies ~70.6% for Monday; our model estimates ~72%, a small edge