Highlights

• • Current market implies ~94% chance for Velcz (1.06) — we estimate ~75% at best
• • Break-even price for our estimate is ~1.333; current price is far below that

Pros

• + Velcz has some wins in limited recent matches and is the market favorite
• + If surface is clay and opponent is weaker, Velcz would be the logical pick

Cons

• - Tiny, surface-limited sample makes probability estimates highly uncertain
• - Market price leaves no margin for error — heavy favourite odds offer negative EV

Details

We estimate that the away player (Zsombor Velcz) is the stronger probability choice given the limited profile available, but the market price (1.06) implies an extremely high win probability (~94%). From the sparse data we have, Velcz's recorded sample is tiny (6 matches, 3-3 record) and exclusively on clay; that creates substantial uncertainty about how he will perform here (surface/venue unknown) and makes any strong edge unlikely. Using a conservative true-win probability of 75% for Velcz (reflecting modest favoritism but accounting for the very small sample, possible surface/venue mismatch, and unknown opponent quality), the break-even decimal price would be 1.333. At the quoted 1.06 there is clear negative expected value (EV = 0.75*1.06 - 1 = -0.205). Given the lack of reliable information on Blake Anderson and the tiny sample for Velcz, we cannot justify backing either side at current prices. We therefore recommend no bet: the favourite is overpriced by the market relative to any realistic estimate of his win probability and the underdog would only be a value play at substantially longer odds than currently offered for Velcz.

Key factors

• • Extremely short sample for Velcz (6 matches, 3-3) increases estimation uncertainty
• • All recorded matches for Velcz in research are on clay; surface for this USA match is unknown
• • Market price (1.06) implies ~94% win probability, which exceeds any reasonable estimate from available data