Highlights

• • Home implied probability (market) = 27.0%; our estimate = 33%
• • Positive EV at current home price 3.7 (EV ≈ +0.221 per unit)

Pros

• + Market appears to over-favor the away side given Yang's weak recent form
• + Current home price (3.7) is above the breakeven threshold (≈3.03) implied by our probability

Cons

• - Research lacks doubles-specific stats, partner quality, and H2H, increasing model uncertainty
• - Small sample and potential for market information (e.g., Ferguson's doubles strength) we don't have could justify the favorite

Details

The market heavily favors the away side at 1.24 (implied away win ~80.6%, home implied ~27.0%). Our read of the available evidence (Mingyuan Yang's poor recent form in singles, 10-21 season record and multiple recent losses on hard courts) reduces confidence in the market's very large edge for the away pairing. We estimate the home pairing's true win probability at ~33%, which is meaningfully higher than the market-implied ~27% (home). At the available home decimal price of 3.7 this discrepancy produces positive expected value. We remain cautious because the research is limited (no quality data on partners, doubles history, or injuries), so uncertainty is high, but pure value math supports a small-value lay on the market favorite in favor of the home side.

Key factors

• • Market-implied home probability is ~27.0% (1/3.7) while we estimate ~33%
• • Mingyuan Yang's recent singles form is poor (10-21 season record, multiple recent losses on hard courts)
• • Very limited doubles-specific data and unknown partner impact increases uncertainty