Bor Artnak vs Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo

Highlights

• • Implied away probability in market ~30.8%; our estimate 38%
• • Min fair odds for away ≈ 2.632; market offers 3.25

Pros

• + Significant positive EV at current away price (≈23.5% ROI per unit)
• + Surface profile favors the away player more than market accounts for

Cons

• - Limited head-to-head and injury data increases uncertainty
• - Market heavy favorite could reflect unreported factors (venue, fitness, last-minute withdrawals)

Details

We see a clear pricing disparity: the market prices Bor Artnak at 1.30 (implied ~76.9%), which overstates the available evidence. Both players have similar career records (Bor 32-24, Joaquin 26-24) and most recent activity is on clay — Joaquin is primarily a clay player while Bor plays both clay and hard. Given the narrow gap in win rates and surface overlap, we estimate Joaquin's true chance is materially higher than the market's implied ~30.8% for the away side. Using an estimated true probability of 38% for Joaquin vs 62% for Bor, the away line at 3.25 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.38 * 3.25 - 1 = +0.235, or +23.5% ROI). The book's heavy favoritism of Bor looks unjustified based on form, surface specialization, and the comparable career records. We recommend backing Joaquin Aguilar Cardozo at the current quoted away price (3.25) because it exceeds the min required decimal odds (≈2.632) implied by our win-probability estimate.

Key factors

• • Career records similar (Bor 32-24, Joaquin 26-24); no large gap in ability
• • Both have recent clay results; Joaquin is a clay specialist which narrows Bor's advantage
• • Market implies home win ~76.9%, which appears overstated given available form data