Botic van de Zandschulp vs Francisco Cerundolo

Highlights

• • Estimated true probability for Cerundolo 54.0% vs market-implied ~51-53%
• • Small positive EV at current away price (≈+0.44% ROI)

Pros

• + Research shows Cerundolo with a strong recent win-loss profile
• + Market is only marginally pricing him as favorite, leaving slight value per our estimate

Cons

• - Edge is very small and would be erased by a modest change in probability assumptions
• - No direct information provided about the home player or head-to-head, increasing model uncertainty

Details

We compare market prices (Home 1.95, Away 1.86) to our independent win-probability estimate. Research available is limited but shows Francisco Cerundolo with a strong recent record (42-25) and competitive results on hard courts in the sample data; there is no comparable detail for Botic van de Zandschulp in the provided research, which raises model uncertainty but also means the market may be slightly underpricing Cerundolo. The market-implied probability for Cerundolo at 1.86 is about 53.8% (raw), but after accounting for typical market vig the normalized market probability is near 51-52%. Based on Cerundolo's documented form and lack of disqualifying information, we estimate his true win probability at 54.0%, which implies a fair decimal price of 1.852. At the available price of 1.86 our estimated EV = 0.54 * 1.86 - 1 = +0.0044 (≈+0.44% ROI). The edge is very small and sensitive to our probability estimate, but strictly positive at the quoted away price.

Key factors

• • Cerundolo's recent match record shows consistent winning form in the provided dataset
• • Market prices slightly favor Cerundolo but only marginally; our estimate gives a small additional edge
• • Lack of comparable, specific information on the home player increases uncertainty around the projection