Botic van de Zandschulp vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value backing Botic van de Zandschulp at 1.91 because Etcheverry's overall 43% win rate appears inconsistent with his market favoritism; at our 58% estimate this yields ~10.8% EV.
Highlights
- • Market implies Etcheverry ~55.3% but his career win rate is ~43.3%
- • Zandschulp at 1.91 offers positive EV if true win chance ≥52.36%; we estimate 58%
Pros
- + Clear numerical mismatch between Etcheverry's documented win rate and market pricing
- + Current odds (1.91) are comfortably above our fair-price threshold (1.724)
Cons
- - Research set is limited and lacks H2H, ranking, and surface-specific form for Zandschulp
- - Estimate depends on inferring Zandschulp's relative strength with incomplete data—risk of model error
Details
We identify value on the home side (Botic van de Zandschulp). The market currently prices Zandschulp at 1.91 (implied 52.36%) while Etcheverry is the slight favorite at 1.81 (implied 55.25%). The available research shows Tomas Martin Etcheverry with an overall 26-34 record (43.3% win rate across 60 matches), which suggests his baseline win probability is substantially below the market-implied favorite probability. Given Etcheverry's losing record and no clear evidence of an injury to Zandschulp or other pick-up factors favoring Etcheverry, we adjust the true probability in Zandschulp's favor. We estimate Zandschulp's true chance at 58.0%, which yields a fair decimal price of 1.724; the current market price of 1.91 therefore offers positive expected value. Calculation: estimated_true_probability = 0.58; expected_value = 0.58 * 1.91 - 1 = 0.108 (~10.8% ROI at current price). We use the current odds of 1.91 for the EV calculation. This recommendation is made cautiously because the research dataset is limited (no H2H, ranking detail, or surface-specific form for Zandschulp), so we treat the assessment as a value play against a market that appears to overvalue Etcheverry relative to his recorded win rate.
Key factors
- • Etcheverry's recorded win rate is 26/60 (43.3%), underperforming the market-implied favorite level
- • Bookmakers currently make Etcheverry the slight favorite (1.81) despite his negative overall record
- • Current home price 1.91 implies ~52.4% — below our estimated true probability of 58%