Boyoung Jeong vs Linda Fruhvirtova
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — favorite is overpriced by the market relative to a conservative true probability estimate, so we recommend not wagering.
Highlights
- • Current favorite price (1.052) implies an implausibly high win probability
- • Fair price estimate (≈1.33) based on available form suggests negative EV at current odds
Pros
- + Market price makes a profitable lay of the favorite likely in theory if one could back the underdog at fair odds
- + Limited data reduces risk of missing hidden factors that would justify the short price
Cons
- - Insufficient, ambiguous publicly-available data on form and H2H to confidently assign a much higher probability
- - If hidden information (injury, withdrawal, or ranking misreporting) justifies the market, our estimate could be wrong
Details
We see an extreme market price for Linda Fruhvirtova (1.052) that implies ~95% win probability. The publicly available player profiles show both competitors with nearly identical overall records and recent form (10-21; several recent losses on hard courts), offering limited evidence that the market probability should be so overwhelming. Given the limited data, we conservatively estimate Fruhvirtova's true win probability at ~75% — meaning the fair decimal price would be ~1.33. At the displayed 1.052, the expected value is strongly negative (EV ≈ -0.211 per unit). The combination of limited differentiating information, poor recent form for both players, and an implausibly short favorite price means there is no value on either side at current prices; we therefore recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (95%+) for the favorite appears excessive given available data
- • Both players show similar overall records (10-21) and weak recent results on hard courts
- • No clear H2H, injury, or surface dominance data to justify the extreme line