Highlights

• • Brenda's documented 10–21 record and recent losses undermine a ~96% implied market chance.
• • Allegra at 10.5 requires <9.6% true chance to be fair; we estimate ~18%, producing ≈0.89 EV per unit.

Pros

• + Large decimal odds on the underdog (10.5) create high potential ROI if our probability estimate is reasonable.
• + Documented poor form for Brenda supports a materially higher chance for the underdog than the market implies.

Cons

• - Very limited direct data on Allegra Fiorani in the provided Research increases model uncertainty.
• - The market may incorporate information not present in our sources (injury, walkover, ranking), which could justify the extreme favorite price and invalidate the edge.

Details

We see a stark mismatch between the market price (Brenda Fruhvirtova 1.04, implied ~96.2%) and the objective data available: Brenda's 2024–2025 record in the Research is 10–21 (win rate ~32%) with recent losses on hard courts. That profile does not support a ~96% true-win probability. The away price (Allegra Fiorani) at 10.5 implies only ~9.5% chance of winning. Even with limited information on Fiorani, a conservative reassessment based on Brenda's poor form and recent results makes a true-win probability for Fiorani materially higher than 9.5%, which creates clear value at 10.5. We therefore recommend the away (Allegra Fiorani) because expected_value > 0 at the quoted market price.

Key factors

• • Market price extremely favors Brenda (1.04 implied ~96%) which conflicts with her documented 10–21 record (≈32% win rate).
• • Recent form: documented losses on hard courts in early September, indicating vulnerability coming into this match.
• • Away price 10.5 implies ~9.5% chance; our conservative estimated probability (18%) gives substantial positive EV.