Brenda Fruhvirtova vs Barbara Dessolis

Highlights

• • Bookmaker implies ~83% for Brenda at 1.20
• • Our estimated true probability is ~55%, requiring ~1.818 to be fair

Pros

• + Clear and conservative probability assessment based on provided identical records
• + We quantify the required fair odds versus current market price

Cons

• - Research is limited and lacks head-to-head, injury, or venue-specific details
• - If unseen contextual info (recent practice, travel, withdrawals) exists, our estimate could be off

Details

We find no value on the heavy market favorite. Both players show virtually identical profiles and records (10-21) and the research provides no clear edge for Brenda Fruhvirtova beyond market pricing. The bookmaker price of 1.20 implies a win probability of ~83%, while our assessment — based on equal career records, matching recent form and no H2H or injury advantage — places Brenda at roughly 55% chance, which would require ~1.818 decimal to be a fair price. At the offered 1.20 there is a large negative expected value, so we decline to recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Both players have identical stated records (10-21) and similar recent results in the research
• • Market heavily favors the home player (1.20) implying ~83% — we estimate far lower (~55%)
• • No clear surface, injury, or head-to-head advantage is present in the provided data