Highlights

• • Market implies ~81% for Bozemoj; our estimate is ~45%
• • Break-even odds for our estimate are ~2.222; current 1.235 offers no value

Pros

• + We have objective downside signals from Bozemoj's losing recent results
• + Clear numerical mismatch between market-implied probability and player career/form-based estimate

Cons

• - Opponent (Mac Visser) data is missing, increasing uncertainty in our probability estimate
• - Small-sample and surface/context specifics could alter true probability, but there is no evidence justifying the short price

Details

The market price (home 1.235 => implied ~81%) greatly overstates Brian Bozemoj's win chances relative to his measurable form and career win rate. Bozemoj's career record (37-47) and a poor recent run on clay suggest a true win probability materially below the market-implied probability. We estimate Bozemoj's true win probability at 45%, which requires decimal odds ≈2.222 to break even; at the available price of 1.235 the expected value is strongly negative. Given the lack of any data on Mac Visser in the Research and no H2H or injury information to justify the heavy favorite price, there is no value on either side at current lines.

Key factors

• • Brian Bozemoj career win rate is below 50% (37-47), indicating limited baseline win probability
• • Recent form in the Research shows multiple recent losses on clay, signaling downward momentum
• • Market-implied probability for the home price (~81%) is far above our estimated true probability (45%)
• • No opponent (Mac Visser) form, ranking, or H2H data provided to justify the heavy favorite price