Highlights

• • Jesse's career and recent form are weak (9-22 overall, poor recent results)
• • Current home price 1.426 > fair odds 1.25 implied by our model

Pros

• + Clear contrast between Jesse's weak record/form and the market pricing
• + At current odds the home side shows a sizable positive EV

Cons

• - No available profiling data for Brian Bozemoj in the research set increases uncertainty
• - Surface, injuries, and match conditions are unknown and could materially change probabilities

Details

We estimate Jesse De Jager's chance to win this match is low based on his career record (9-22) and very poor recent form, so we assign Jesse ~20% true win probability and Brian Bozemoj ~80%. The market prices Brian at 1.426 (implied 70.1%), which understates our estimated true probability for the home player. Using our estimate (p=0.80) the fair odds would be 1.25; the current market price 1.426 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.80 * 1.426 - 1 = +0.141). Key uncertainties are the lack of public data on Brian, unknown surface/conditions, and a bookmaker margin embedded in the quoted prices, but on the available information the home side appears to offer value.

Key factors

• • Jesse De Jager career record 9-22 indicates low baseline win rate
• • Recent form shows multiple recent losses, suggesting form is below career average
• • Market implies ~70.1% for the home; our estimate is ~80%, creating value