Highlights

• • Home has large experience advantage and better career record
• • Book price (1.526) implies ~65.5% — we estimate ~72% chance

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current market odds (~+0.099 per unit)
• + Opponent has a 0-7 record, suggesting a real baseline weakness

Cons

• - Bozemoj shows some recent losses which increase short-term variance
• - Small-sample issues on Paardekooper make exact probability estimation noisy

Details

We see clear value on Brian Bozemoj at the current moneyline (1.526). The research shows Bozemoj has substantially more match experience (84 matches, 37 wins) across clay and hard, while Stijn Paardekooper has a very small sample and no recorded wins (0-7). Both players have clay experience, so surface doesn’t materially favor the weaker-record player. The market-implied probability for the home price is ~65.5% (1/1.526). Based on the disparity in career volume and Win-Loss outcomes, and despite some recent losses for Bozemoj, we estimate Bozemoj’s true win probability at ~72%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.389, so the offered 1.526 represents positive expected value (EV ≈ +0.099 units per 1 unit staked). The edge comes chiefly from Paardekooper’s 0-7 record and limited match history versus Bozemoj’s greater baseline competency; limited recent form noise raises variance but not enough to remove value at 1.526.

Key factors

• • Bozemoj far greater match experience (84 matches) and positive win history relative to opponent
• • Paardekooper 0-7 career record — very limited wins, increasing likelihood of underperformance
• • Market-implied probability (65.5%) is below our estimated true probability (72%), creating value