Highlights

• • Britt has a much larger sample (1066 matches) and a higher career win rate (~52.4%).
• • Current market underprices Britt (implied 38.8%) relative to our estimate (50%).

Pros

• + Strong experience and broader surface history vs Amelie’s small sample
• + Current odds (2.58) are well above our fair price (2.00), producing positive EV

Cons

• - Recent form shows losses for both players, introducing short-term uncertainty
• - Amelie’s market favor could reflect unobserved factors (fitness, matchup specifics) not present in the provided data

Details

We see a clear value opportunity backing Britt Du Pree at 2.58. The market implies Britt has ~38.8% chance to win (1/2.58) while Amelie is strongly favored at ~68.7% (1/1.455). However, the career numbers in the research show a material edge for Britt: 559-507 across 1,066 matches (win rate ~52.4%) versus Amelie’s 10-21 across 31 matches (win rate ~32.3%). Both players show recent losses on hard courts, so short-term form is mixed and does not justify the market heavily favoring the less experienced player. Given Britt’s superior experience, higher career win rate and surface versatility, we estimate Britt’s true win probability at 50%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be 2.00, meaning the current 2.58 offers substantial value. We used the current home moneyline of 2.58 to compute EV.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap and superior career win-rate for Britt (559-507 vs 10-21)
• • Both recently lost on hard courts, so short-term form does not clearly favour Amelie
• • Market overreaction to recent results and small-sample noise for Amelie creates inflated favorite price