Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Catarina ≈ 85.5% vs our estimate 35%
• • EV at current price for Catarina is strongly negative (~ -0.591 per unit)

Pros

• + Catarina is the clear market favorite, so large liquidity and sharp lines may exist
• + If missing context (e.g., Bruna injury) existed, the market price could be justified

Cons

• - Available performance data shows Catarina with weak win rate and recent losses
• - No information on Bruna to explain the heavy market favoritism—high uncertainty

Details

We see Catarina priced at 1.17 (implied ~85.5% win probability) despite the research showing a career record of 10-21 (≈32% win rate) and recent straight losses on hard courts. There is no provided profile or form data for Bruna Liotto de Carvalho to justify such a lopsided market price; given Catarina's documented form and lack of head-to-head or injury data for either player in the research, we cannot justify a true-win probability near the market-implied level. Using a conservative estimated true probability of 35% for Catarina (reflecting her overall record and recent losses), the current favorite price yields a strongly negative expected value (EV ≈ -0.591 for a 1-unit stake). Because the market price implies a far higher probability than supported by the available data and we lack information that would validate that discrepancy (Bruna's strength, injuries, or other contextual factors), we recommend no bet at current odds.

Key factors

• • Catarina's documented career record is 10-21 (≈32% win rate) across 31 matches
• • Recent form shows consecutive losses on hard courts in early September 2025
• • Market heavily favors Catarina (1.17) but there is no provided data on the opponent to justify that gap