Bruna Liotto de Carvalho vs Julia Konishi Camargo Silva

Highlights

• • Julia is heavily favored on the market but has a weak career record (10-22) and recent losses.
• • Bruna at 11.50 offers positive expected value under conservative probability assumptions.

Pros

• + Clear margin between our conservative probability estimate and market-implied probability
• + Large decimal price (11.50) produces meaningful upside if our estimate is correct

Cons

• - Research contains no direct data on Bruna, increasing uncertainty and variance
• - Market might reflect late information not present in the supplied research (injury, withdrawal, matchup specifics)

Details

We identify clear value on the home underdog. The market prices Bruna at 11.50 (implied win probability ~8.70%) while the heavy favorite Julia is priced at 1.04 (implied ~96.15%). Julia's provided career record (10-22) and recent losses indicate she is far from dominant; those form signals make a 96% market expectation improbable. Conservatively, we estimate Bruna's true chance at 12%, which is materially higher than the market's ~8.7% for the home player. At that probability the home price of 11.50 yields positive expected value (EV = 0.12*11.5 - 1 = +0.38), so backing the home underdog represents a value play relative to the supplied data. Key uncertainties are the lack of direct information on Bruna and potential reasons the market might have (e.g., late withdrawal risk or extremely strong head-to-head advantage for Julia) that are not present in the research; we factor those into a conservative probability rather than a larger edge.

Key factors

• • Market implies an extremely high win-probability for Julia (≈96%), which conflicts with her 10-22 career record
• • Recent matches in the research show multiple recent losses for Julia, reducing confidence in a near-certain outcome
• • Home (Bruna) priced at 11.50 appears significantly undervalued relative to conservative true-probability estimates