Highlights

• • Implied probability gap is extreme and unsupported by the away player's 10-21 career record
• • At our estimated 17% true probability for the home, the current price offers strong theoretical value

Pros

• + Large positive EV at current odds (≈27.5% ROI on a 1-unit stake)
• + Book market appears to overreact/favor away far beyond available performance evidence

Cons

• - Very limited data on the opponent and match conditions increases uncertainty
• - Longshot outcomes are high variance; even positive EV bets can quickly lose in individual instances

Details

We see a very large market skew: the book prices the away (Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano) at 1.08 (implied ~92.6%) and the home at 7.50 (implied ~13.3%). Marian's available career data shows a 10-21 record (≈32% career win rate) with poor recent results on hard courts, which does not support a true win probability near 93%. Given the disconnect between the market price and the player's documented form, we estimate the home player's true chance materially exceeds the market-implied 13.3%. Using a conservative estimated true probability for the home of 17% yields EV = 0.17*7.50 - 1 = +0.275 (27.5% ROI) at the current price. That EV is large enough to recommend backing the home as a value bet, while noting significant uncertainty due to limited information on the opponent and match context.

Key factors

• • Market implies away win ≈92.6% (1.08) while home implied ≈13.3% (7.5)
• • Marian Gomez Pezuela Cano career record 10-21 (~32% wins) and recent poor results
• • Limited opponent/match-context data increases uncertainty but market looks overstretched