Highlights

• • Normalized favorite probability ≈ 83.6%, required fair odds ≈ 1.196
• • Current favorite price (1.162) produces negative EV (~-2.8%)

Pros

• + Market is decisive — heavy favorite reduces possibility of hidden value unless external info exists
• + Normalization gives a conservative, margin-adjusted probability estimate

Cons

• - No match-specific data (surface, form, injuries, H2H) to identify mispricing
• - Both sides produce a small negative EV after normalization, so betting would expect a negative ROI

Details

We normalize the market-implied probabilities to remove the bookmaker margin and produce conservative 'true' win chances. The raw implied probabilities from the quoted prices are Home 1/5.93 = 16.86% and Away 1/1.162 = 86.03% (sum = 102.89%). Normalizing yields estimated true probabilities Home ≈ 16.39% and Away ≈ 83.61%. Using the favorite (Away) as the reference, the normalized probability (≈0.836) produces a required fair price of ~1.196. At the available market price for the favorite (1.162) the expected value is negative (EV ≈ -0.028), and the underdog (Home) produces the same negative EV because probabilities/odds are symmetric after normalization. With no additional match data (surface, form, injuries, H2H) to justify materially moving our probability away from the market-adjusted values, neither side offers positive expected value, so we do not recommend a bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities normalized to remove bookmaker margin
• • Heavy market favorite (Away) priced at ~1.162, implying ~86% raw probability
• • No additional information on surface, form, injuries, or head-to-head to justify deviation from market estimate