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Burgos CF vs Getafe CF play on 2025-12-18 18:00 in the Spain Copa del Rey (football). Compare football odds, line movement, and our model’s edge before placing your bet.
Estimated value edge: 22.7%. Suggested side: Getafe CF. Moneyline — Home: 2.94 (34.0%), Away: 2.36 (42.4%).
Global 11v11 sport with two 45-minute halves; major leagues worldwide.
Our lean: Getafe CF. This pick is based on expected value and current odds.
Home: 2.94, Away: 2.36. Odds may update frequently.
Best bet: Getafe CF moneyline given current prices.
The market prices Getafe at 2.36 (implied win probability ~42.4%). Based on the pre-match previews, H2H context and league-level gap indicated across the research, we assess Getafe as the stronger side in this Copa del Rey tie despite Burgos hosting at El Plantío. Our estimated true probability for a Getafe win (0.52) is meaningfully above the market-implied probability (0.424), producing positive expected value. The price of 2.36 therefore offers value relative to our assessment, while acknowledging cup ties carry upset risk and possible rotation.
Summary: We find value on Getafe at 2.36: our 52% win estimate exceeds the market-implied ~42.4%, yielding an estimated EV ≈ 0.227 per unit staked.