Highlights

• • Cecchinato favored by market despite clay-centric profile
• • Buvaysar's mixed-surface experience supports a higher true win probability on grass

Pros

• + Positive estimated EV at current home price (2.35)
• + Surface adaptability argument undermines market's clay-based pricing for Cecchinato

Cons

• - Limited direct grass-match data for both players increases uncertainty
• - Edge is modest (EV ~5.75%), susceptible to upsets and information changes

Details

We believe Marco Cecchinato's market favoritism (away 1.599) overstates his edge on grass given the research: Cecchinato's recent activity and surface history are almost exclusively clay, while Buvaysar Gadamauri has match experience on both clay and hard and may adapt better to grass. The quoted prices imply probabilities of ~42.6% for Buvaysar (2.35) and ~62.5% for Cecchinato (1.599). After accounting for surface fit, relative form noise, and limited grass data for both players, we estimate Buvaysar's true win probability at 45%. At the current home decimal odds of 2.35 this yields positive expected value: EV = 0.45 * 2.35 - 1 = 0.0575 (5.75% ROI on a 1-unit stake). We view this as a small but tangible edge because the market appears to overweight Cecchinato's clay track record without sufficiently discounting surface preference and the uncertainty around grass performance.

Key factors

• • Surface mismatch: Cecchinato's history is heavily clay-focused while grass performance is untested
• • Buvaysar has played multiple surfaces (clay and hard) and may adapt better to grass
• • Market favoritism toward Cecchinato likely reflects clay form more than expected grass advantage