C. Cretu/D. Uta vs J. Clarke /C. Denolly

Highlights

• • Market implies ~70.9% for away at 1.41; we estimate ~60%
• • Negative EV at current price (≈ -0.154)

Pros

• + Away side is the market favourite, indicating perceived superiority
• + We have concrete recent-form data for J. Clarke showing activity to inform a conservative estimate

Cons

• - Clarke's poor singles record and recent losses reduce confidence in him as a reliable doubles favourite
• - Insufficient doubles-specific data and missing profiles for the home pairing create high uncertainty

Details

We estimate the away pair (J. Clarke/C. Denolly) has a true win probability around 60% (0.60) based primarily on the available profiling of J. Clarke, who shows a weak recent singles record (10-21) and poor recent match results; that reduces confidence in the favourite tag when Clarke is part of a doubles pairing. The market price for the away side (decimal 1.41) implies a win probability of ~70.9% (1/1.41 = 0.709), which is significantly higher than our estimate. Using our probability (0.60) the expected value at the current away price is negative (EV = 0.60*1.41 - 1 = -0.154), so there is no value to back the 1.41 favourite. Given the limited data on the home pairing (C. Cretu/D. Uta) in the provided research and the uncertainty of converting singles form to doubles strength, we decline to recommend a side at the current prices. To get positive EV on our estimated 60% win chance you would need minimum decimal odds of 1.667 (1/0.60).

Key factors

• • J. Clarke's documented weak recent form and 10-21 record reduce confidence in the favourite tag
• • Market-implied probability for the away side (70.9%) exceeds our estimated true probability (60%), producing negative EV
• • Very limited/no provided data on the home pairing (C. Cretu/D. Uta) and on doubles-specific form increases model uncertainty