Highlights

• • Home price 1.70 implies >58.8% needed for +EV; our estimate is 55%
• • Lack of doubles-specific data (partners/opponents) increases uncertainty

Pros

• + Astrid has professional match experience and recorded matches this season
• + Home market implies favoritism, so small edge would be required to justify a bet

Cons

• - Astrid's recent results are poor (10-21 season, recent losses), reducing confidence
• - No data on doubles pairing dynamics or opponents prevents reliable probability uplift

Details

We estimate the home pair (C. Delaunay/Astrid Lew Yan Foon) has about a 55.0% chance to win based on available information centered on Astrid Lew Yan Foon's recent form (season record 10-21, recent losses). The market price for the home side is 1.70 which requires a true win probability >58.82% to be +EV; our 55.0% estimate implies negative expectation (EV = 0.55 * 1.70 - 1 = -0.065). The away price (2.06) would require >48.54% to be +EV; given we lack any data on the opposing pairing (O. Gram/A. Reguer) or the home pairing dynamics in doubles, we do not have confidence to assign the away side a >48.5% win probability. Because both sides appear to offer negative or uncertain EV at current prices and data is limited (no doubles metrics, only singles-form info for one player), we decline to recommend a wager.

Key factors

• • Astrid Lew Yan Foon's recent form is weak (season 10-21, recent back-to-back losses)
• • No reliable information on doubles partner C. Delaunay or opponents O. Gram/A. Reguer limits probability accuracy
• • Market requires >58.82% for home at 1.70 to be +EV; our estimate is 55% so negative expectation